How will you know you are on track before the result arrives? Today you give the goals in your hierarchy signals you can act on.
An activity today checks each outcome. The fourth continues in your follow-up work, when you build your full goal network.
Classify an indicator as leading or lagging and explain why.
Place leading and lagging indicators on the levels of a goal hierarchy.
Evaluate a leading indicator against three tests.
Design one lagging and two leading indicators for one of your own goals.
In pairs: how do you know you are on track to achieve a goal?
A measure of an outcome that has already happened. It tells you, with certainty, whether you reached the goal, but only once the result can no longer be changed.
Last month's revenue for a subscription business.
Once the figure is known, it is too late to change: it can only be learned from.
How often users open the product this week.
Engagement can still be acted on before it shows up in revenue, so it leads.
Source: Leung, A. X. (2025) Leading vs. lagging indicators, plus examples. Amplitude.
A measure that predicts a future outcome while you can still act on it. It guides what you do day to day, but it carries no guarantee.
A drop in app engagement in the second week of the month.
The team can investigate and fix it before users leave and revenue falls.
Average revenue per user.
It measures money already earned, so it reports on the past: it lags.
Source: Leung (2025), Amplitude.
| Criterion | Lagging | Leading |
|---|
Predict each row before it is revealed. Source: Leung (2025), Amplitude.
45 minutes of resistance training before work on Monday, Wednesday and Friday
Sessions completed this week, out of three
Be in good physical shape
A fitness test repeated at the end of each term
"The more upstream of revenue the metric is, the more impact you'll be able to drive." Leung (2025). Goal example: Höchli et al., as reported in Trexler.
Where does each kind of indicator belong in a goal hierarchy, and what makes a leading indicator worth tracking?
Hierarchy: Höchli et al., as reported in Trexler. Placing indicators on its levels is the approach this session proposes.
Select a level on the model, or press r to step through.
It moves with what you do this week, so a drop tells you what to change before the result arrives.
Ask: what would I do differently if this fell?
It should correlate strongly with your lagging indicator. If the two part company, investigate and choose a new one.
Ask: if this rises, should my result follow?
Track it continuously, week by week. Save the lagging indicator for periodic reviews.
Ask: can I see this every week?
Tests drawn from Leung (2025), Amplitude. Feedback works best when personalised and frequent, about weekly: Fry and Neff, as reported in Trexler.
Sign-ups can mislead: many people sign up without engaging. Leung suggests counting a milestone, such as completing onboarding, instead.
When the leading indicator is on track but the lagging one does not move, investigate and choose a new leading indicator.
Source: Leung (2025), Amplitude.
Intermediate goal: be in good physical shape
Gym check-ins this week. A check-in records arriving, not training.
Planned sessions completed in full this week, out of three.
Lock predictions, then reveal the result.
In pairs, find the parts of the plan that break the definitions or the three tests. Select each part the room calls out, then press Check.
A worked example, then you sketch one branch of your own goals and give it indicators.
Predict the first step before it appears.
Back to the opening claim: what does checking only the end result miss?
Build your full goal network.
Give each intermediate goal one lagging indicator, and each subordinate goal at least one leading indicator that passes the three tests.
Leung, A. X. (2025) Leading vs. lagging indicators, plus examples. Amplitude.
Trexler, E. An evidence-based approach to goal setting and behavior change. Stronger by Science.